THE latest predictions from the Electoral Calculus show that four of Cornwall's six Conservative MPs could be set to lose their seats at the next general election. 

According to the latest data from political consultants, Electoral Calculus, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats are predicted to win four of the six Cornwall seats, with the Conservatives retaining just two. 

Cherilyn Mackrory, the current Conservative MP for Truro and Falmouth, is predicted to lose her seat to a Labour candidate, despite the odds of her retaining her seat increasing to 14 per cent, up from nine per cent in December of 2022.

The prediction estimates that Labour has an 85 per cent chance of winning the Truro and Falmouth seat, with the Lib Dems having a slim one per cent chance of stealing it. 

St Ives, West Cornwall, and The Isles of Scilly MP, Derek Thomas, is predicted to have his seat stolen by the Lib Dems, with the current MP given a 22 per cent chance of retaining it, compared to the 73 per cent chance of winning estimated for the Liberal Democrats, up from 55 per cent last year. 

The estimation also gives the Labour Party a five per cent chance of winning the seat. 

George Eustice, MP for Camborne and Redruth, is predicted as having a 16 per cent chance of retaining his seat - although this is a moot point, as Mr Eustice has already announced he will not be standing. The Labour Party is estimated as having an 84 per cent chance of winning it from the Conservatives, down from 86 per cent last year. 

St Austell and Newquay MP, Steve Double, is also predicted to narrowly lose his seat with the Labour Party estimated to have a 58 per cent chance of stealing the seat, compared to Double's 40 per cent chance of retaining it. 

The Electoral Calculus also gives the Lib Dems a one per cent chance of taking the seat. 

Both Scott Mann, MP for North Cornwall, and Sheryl Murray, MP for South East Cornwall, are predicted to retain their seats with Mann estimated as having a 56 per cent chance of winning and Murray a 58 per cent chance. 

The Liberal Demoncrats are the Conservative's closest competition for North Cornwall with a 39 per cent chance of stealing the seat, while the Labour Party are estimated to have just a five per cent chance of winning it. 

In South East Cornwall, Labour is the closest competition with a 38 per cent chance of stealing the seat, while the Lib Dems are predicted as having just a four per cent chance. 

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting website that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics.

General elections are held no more than five years apart, with the next one due to take place in January 2025 if one isn't called sooner.