Cornwall general election who'd win MP seats in parliament

The only seat the Tories would hold would be south east Cornwall.

A new YouGov MRP model, commissioned by Conservative Britain Alliance and released in The Telegraph last night, shows that Labour would win a large majority were the election to be held today.

The majority of seats in Cornwall would turn red (Image: YouGov)

Falmouth and Truro MP Cherilyn MacKrory would lose her seat to Labour candidate Jayne Kirkham with only 29% of the vote compared to Labour’s 38%.

Labour's Jayne Kirkham would win the Falmouth and Truro seat

The Lib Dems would poll only 12%.

Cherilyn Mackrory told the Packet: 'The polls have been challenging nationally for much of my time as MP for Truro and Falmouth, but in the run up to the General Election I will be doing my best to continue working for local people as their hard working constituency MP.

"There’s a lot of chatter about national issues but I will continue to deliver on the ground, in Cornwall, for the communities I represent.

"The dualling of the A30, the new women and children’s hospital at Treliske, and continued investment into Falmouth docks – all things I have worked hard on to deliver – it is making a positive difference for local people that matters to me, and that is what I will continue to do.'

Cherilyn Mackrory MP would lose her seat (Image: Supplied)

However it would be a different story in St Ives with former MP Andrew George ousting the Tories Derek Thomas with a whopping 44% of the vote compared to the Tories 27% and Labour on 15%.

Andrew George would return as an MP if the poll is right (Image: LibDems)

The Tories would also lose Camborne Redruth to Labour who would win 42% of the vote compared to the Conservatives 31%. While Reform UK would win 9% of the vote above the Lib Dems and Green Party at 8%.

The victory for Labour would be a bit tighter in St Austell and Newquay with the party winning 35% of the vote compared to the Tories on 31. Interestingly the Reform UK party would be in third place with 14% of the vote.

It would also be a tight win for the Lib Dems in north Cornwall with the party taking 35% of the vote compared to the Tories 32%.

In South East Cornwall the Tories would hold their seat with 35% of the vote compared to Labour’s 29%.

The results of the model, which uses data from 14,110 respondents answering between December 12 and January 4, would see Keir Starmer enter Downing Street having secured a 120-seat majority, with Labour winning 385 Commons seats. This would be a 183-seat increase for the party since the last election.

You can see the interactive map here.

The Conservatives meanwhile would slump to just 169, losing 196 seats compared to 2019.

These results are reminiscent of the 1997 general election outcome, which saw Tony Blair’s Labour won 418 seats and John Major’s Conservatives took 165.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats would receive 48 seats – also similar to their 1997 haul – making them a notable Parliamentary force once again. The SNP, meanwhile, would fall to 25 seats, with Labour making significant gains in the central belt.

This MRP is YouGov’s first since new parliamentary constituency boundary proposals were finalised. While this is the first time an election will be fought using these constituencies, notional results calculations allow them to see what the outcome in each seat would have been if the last election had used those boundaries, and therefore which seats would be changing hands.

Most notably this includes chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, which is narrowly won by the Liberal Democrats in this model. Other cabinet casualties include Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North), Welsh secretary David TC Davies (Monmouthshire), attorney general Victoria Prentis (Banbury), and veterans minister Johnny Mercer (Plymouth Moor View).

Conservative party chairman Lee Anderson would also lose his Ashfield seat to Labour, and Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge constituency would likewise fall to Labour.