There could be a changing of the guard in Cornwall at the next General Election if a new seat-by-seat poll by YouGov proves true.

If the country were voting this week, Cornwall would be left with only one of its current Conservative MPs according to the latest poll.

YouGov’s own poll, with no client involved, shows that Labour would win 403 seats nationwide, with their Conservative rivals winning 155, down from 169 in the pollster’s January projection. The poll suggests three Labour gains in Cornwall with the Liberal Democrats taking two seats.

The model is based on vote intention data collected and analysed by YouGov from 18,761 British adults interviewed from March 7 to 27. This week’s poll suggests that South East Cornwall’s Sheryll Murray would be the only Conservative MP to hold a seat in the Duchy.

Here are the YouGov results for each Cornish constituency:

North Cornwall

2019 winner: Conservative

Poll result: Lib Dem gain

Cons: 31%

Labour: 18%

Lib Dem: 32%

Green: 4%

Reform UK: 15%

Scott Mann MP is defending the seat for the Tories, with Robyn Harris standing as the candidate for Labour, Ben Maguire for Lib Dem and Rowland O’Connor for Reform UK. Other candidates have yet to be confirmed.

South East Cornwall

2019 winner: Conservative

Poll result: Conservative hold

Cons: 34%

Labour: 27%

Lib Dem: 18%

Green: 6%

Reform UK: 15%

Sheryll Murray MP is defending the seat for the Tories, with Colin Martin standing as the Lib Dem candidate and Paul Wadley for Reform UK. Other candidates have yet to be confirmed, though Labour says their representative will be announced soon.

St Austell and Newquay

2019 winner: Conservative

Poll result: Labour gain

Cons: 28%

Labour: 34%

Lib Dem: 13%

Green: 6%

Reform UK: 17%

Other: 1%

Steve Double MP is defending the seat for the Tories, with Noah Law standing as the Labour candidate, Joanna Kenny for the Lib Dems and Stephen Beal for Reform UK. Other candidates have yet to be confirmed.

Truro and Falmouth

2019 winner: Conservative

Poll result: Labour gain

Conservative: 27%

Labour: 45%

Lib Dem: 7%

Green: 10%

Reform UK: 11%

Cherilyn Mackrory MP is defending the seat for the Tories, with Jayne Kirkham standing for Labour and Ruth Gripper for the Lib Dems. Other candidates have yet to be confirmed.

Camborne and Redruth

2019 winner: Conservatives

Poll result: Labour gain

Conservative: 28%

Labour: 42%

Lib Dem: 9%

Green: 6%

Reform UK: 15%

Current MP George Eustice will retire at the next election and the seat is now being defended for the Tories by Connor Donnithorne, with Perran Moon standing for Labour, Thalia Marrington for the Lib Dems and Roger Tarrant for Reform UK. Other candidates have yet to be confirmed.

St Ives

2019 winner: Conservatives

Poll result: Lib Dem gain

Conservative: 24%

Labour 14%

Lib Dem: 44%

Green: 5%

Reform UK: 12%

Other 1%

Derek Thomas MP is defending the seat for the Tories, with former constituency MP Andrew George standing for the Lib Dems. Other candidates have yet to be confirmed, though Labour says their representative will be announced soon.

The Times reported this week that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak shrugged off the polling on Wednesday night by saying “what matters is the General Election” and telling The Sun’s Never Mind the Ballots programme: “My pitch would be simple. ‘Look, the plan that we’ve put in place is starting to show the change that people want to see, and if we stick to it, there’s a brighter future ahead.’”

A date for the next election has yet to be announced, though many pundits now believe it will be called in November.